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Saturday : Changeover Day

Today is quite a significant day with regards to the UK weather. Sure, it may not appear much to you. However, after three long weeks of a blocking weather pattern, the change is underway as high pressure builds in from the North-west bringing much cooler and fresher weather to all areas.

First off we need to get rid of the showers and thunderstorms which are still affecting Eastern and South-eastern areas today. During the course of today we will see further rain in the mild, humid air across Eastern parts of England. To the North-west the cold front is marching quickly South-east and will clear the far South coast overnight tonight.

Showers across Western Scotland and parts of Cumbria this afternoon as the frontal system clears and the cooler, fresher air filters South. Also, the risk of some heavy showers for a time across parts of Devon and Cornwall. However, these are likely to be restricted to areas South of Bodmin and Dartmoor.

Overnight we will see the transition to cooler air with high pressure building in bringing a fairly nice Sunday for many areas. So, not all bad but a bit of a mixed bag. Have a great Saturday whatever you are or are not doing.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

BIG GFS Model Upgrade On Way

For the vast majority of people it will be a bit like where you go home and sure that something has changed but not quite sure what. Perhaps it's that picture on the wall and you are sure it's new but in fact it's been there for years... you get the idea.

A massive GFS upgrade is coming in November which will take the US weather model into not only the 21st century, but will set the standard for years to come for other weather modelers. For most of you you will notice an improvement in things like cloud cover and temperatures as the resolution of the model is doubling. Not just this but an entire raft of changes including the grid system which is going and being replaced by a kind of football octagonal shape grid.

We could blurt on about all the changes but in all honesty they are the kind of things which make meteorologists drool but for the lay person it's a bit like a mechanic getting excited about a new style of carburettor or something.

We will let you know when the models are changing. Metcheck will be using the new data from the start of October and you probably won't notice a thing except the accuracy increases. But, behind the scenes there are some very excited meteorologists.... very, very excited.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (4)

Equinoctial Gales

Next week sees the autumn equinox take place as the sun passes over the equator and moves over the southern hemisphere for the next six months. Traditionally many Septembers bring a spell of fine, settled late-summer weather during the first half of the month which then give way to increasingly unsettled conditions with spells wind and rain developing during the second half. Often when this transition takes place within a week or so of the autumn equinox it has long been referred to as the time of "equinoctial gales".

Recent records don't completely support the idea of equinoctial gales, and whilst there are years in which gales weather have affected the country at the time of the equinox, such as 1975 and 1991, the second half of September as a whole is generally a period in which the frequency of high winds starts to increase in time for the winter season when the gales peak in frequency as the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics increases.

So what of this year? Well the equinox occurs on September 23rd and so far this month has been exceptionally dry, warm and settled for many parts. However over the next week or so we are set to see rather more unsettled conditions developing, firstly in the form of thundery showers moving into southern Britain from the south by the end of the coming week and into the weekend before the quiet weather returns for the beginning of next week. However there is growing consensus that a full breakdown to Atlantic weather systems will take place later next week with spells of increasingly wet and windy weather developing.

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