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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Mild Air Returns

Milder and cloudier conditions are now back in place across much of the UK and are set to hang around for the next couple of days. Indeed Halloween tomorrow has the potential to be the warmest on record in some spots with temperatures approaching the 20C mark. The weekend then looks set to see cooler conditions moving in from the west, but it will be rather changeable too with rain pushing eastwards across many areas followed by showers.

This morning starts off cloudy, misty and damp across all but northernmost parts of Scotland but even here cloud will soon increase from the south with outbreaks of rain pushing northwards. On the whole it will be a rather cloudy day in many regions, but early rain and drizzle will tend to ease and become confined to northern and western districts of Scotland and Northern Ireland by this afternoon where it may turn heavier later. At the same time some bright or sunny intervals may break through across some central and eastern parts of England, Wales and Scotland in particular, but most places will hold onto a lot of cloud. Temperatures will be milder everywhere with highs of 16C to 18C across much of England and Wales but nearer 13C to 15C across Scotland and Northern Ireland whilst southerly winds will pick up in many areas, becoming strong in the northwest.

It will be a mild night across the UK with plenty of cloud around, and whilst there will be a fair amount of dry weather around, some rain and drizzle will break out, especially over northern and western parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Minimums of 10C to 12C are expected whilst it will remain breezy, especially in the north and west. Looking ahead to tomorrow and for northern and western parts it will be a mild and cloudy day with some rain at times in the northwest, but across many parts of England and Wales some bright and sunny spells will develop allowing for it to turn warm with temperatures approaching 20C in places despite the brisk winds.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

Remember Remember... to check the heating

A marked change to the weather in time for Bonfire Night next week as Low Ophelia dominates the weather bringing initially a remarkably warm end to October before heading out towards the North Sea and introducing much colder air from the North. It is likely that we will see some sleet and snow across higher ground in Scotland and Wales, but as ever these things are notoriously difficult to forecast a week in advance.

One thing we are sure of it that even the hardened short wearers of you will put the heating on at some point next week with frosts and fog likely to cause some issues as Ophelia slackens out and provides some clear and cold nights with widespread ground frosts.

So, before we actually reach that phase, it's probably a good idea to check your heating over the next couple of days as we promise Dave the Plumber will be pretty busy next week with people who have suddenly found out that their radiators need bleeding.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (0)

Turning Ophelia Cold?

Overnight model runs are always fun to look at first thing in the morning when you trundle into the office. This morning the GFS has gone off on a slight tangent as it develops Low Ophelia which pushes in from the West later this week into quite a potent area of low pressure and takes her across into the Norwegian Sea over the weekend. As we always remind you, in weather terms this is still quite a long way away and things can and will change.

Taking a look at the ensembles it is clear that this is what we call an "outlier" run. An "Outlier" is pretty much what you think it is. Kind of like not drinking coffee for a few weeks then having a double espresso when out with friends. You'll get some strange looks and people asking if everything is alright, but you're just having an "outlier".

Normally we discount these runs. But when weather models suggest it, then leave the idea alone, then come back to it a few days later then it's showing that there is something in the system which is giving this outcome credence and it's worth taking a closer look at.

We've got a forecasters discussion at Metcheck at 10am this morning, so we will have a look at this scenario over a couple of double espressos (Ed. Is that a good idea?)

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