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Showers For Some

  • Showers For Some

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It's still a relatively fine picture for many parts of the UK today despite high pressure losing its grip somewhat and allowing a weak cold front to bring a band of cloud and patchy rain south-eastwards. Either side of this band there will be a fair amount of dry weather around with sunny spells but further showery rain will move into the northwest later on as another frontal system moves in.

To start with this morning that band of cloud is lying across Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern most parts of England and there is some patchy rain around with one or two heavier bursts in places. This cloud band will slowly edge further south today to reach other parts of northern England and eventually North Wales, the rain perhaps turning more persistent for a time across northwest England. This will allow brighter skies already over much of Scotland and northern parts of Northern Ireland to follow on, but showers over western Scotland will turn heavier and more frequent today, reaching Northern Ireland by this evening. Meanwhile ahead of the first cloud band for the rest of England and Wales it will be another mostly fine day with sunny spells although cloud will tend to increase from the north as we go through the day. After a chilly start temperatures will pick up to near normal values in many areas, warmest in the best of the sunshine in the south with maximums here of 20C.

Tonight will be a milder night in most regions with more in the way of cloud and breeze. Showery outbreaks of rain will spread in across many areas, heaviest in the northwest, but central and southern parts of England will remain mostly dry for much of the night. Wednesday will see the last of the overnight showers moving away to the east to leave many areas bright and breezy with just the odd shower in the north and west.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (1)

BIG GFS Model Upgrade On Way

For the vast majority of people it will be a bit like where you go home and sure that something has changed but not quite sure what. Perhaps it's that picture on the wall and you are sure it's new but in fact it's been there for years... you get the idea.

A massive GFS upgrade is coming in November which will take the US weather model into not only the 21st century, but will set the standard for years to come for other weather modelers. For most of you you will notice an improvement in things like cloud cover and temperatures as the resolution of the model is doubling. Not just this but an entire raft of changes including the grid system which is going and being replaced by a kind of football octagonal shape grid.

We could blurt on about all the changes but in all honesty they are the kind of things which make meteorologists drool but for the lay person it's a bit like a mechanic getting excited about a new style of carburettor or something.

We will let you know when the models are changing. Metcheck will be using the new data from the start of October and you probably won't notice a thing except the accuracy increases. But, behind the scenes there are some very excited meteorologists.... very, very excited.

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Metcheck Forecast Team Article Comments (4)

Equinoctial Gales

Next week sees the autumn equinox take place as the sun passes over the equator and moves over the southern hemisphere for the next six months. Traditionally many Septembers bring a spell of fine, settled late-summer weather during the first half of the month which then give way to increasingly unsettled conditions with spells wind and rain developing during the second half. Often when this transition takes place within a week or so of the autumn equinox it has long been referred to as the time of "equinoctial gales".

Recent records don't completely support the idea of equinoctial gales, and whilst there are years in which gales weather have affected the country at the time of the equinox, such as 1975 and 1991, the second half of September as a whole is generally a period in which the frequency of high winds starts to increase in time for the winter season when the gales peak in frequency as the temperature gradient between the pole and the tropics increases.

So what of this year? Well the equinox occurs on September 23rd and so far this month has been exceptionally dry, warm and settled for many parts. However over the next week or so we are set to see rather more unsettled conditions developing, firstly in the form of thundery showers moving into southern Britain from the south by the end of the coming week and into the weekend before the quiet weather returns for the beginning of next week. However there is growing consensus that a full breakdown to Atlantic weather systems will take place later next week with spells of increasingly wet and windy weather developing.

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