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Latest NHC Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 03N16W 02N24W 02N32W, to the Equator along 37W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of the line 08N12W 07N30W 06N40W 05N52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through the far west of Texas, to 23N100W, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to west central Guatemala. A broad surface trough is in the Gulf of Mexico from the Texas/ Louisiana border to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the area. The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the middle Texas Gulf coast to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFS model for 700 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level westerly wind flow is pushing high level moisture from Mexico into most of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to rough seas have been from 24N to 28N between 92W and 97W. Slight seas are from 25N northward from 86W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge in the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the central US and Mexico will support fresh to strong southeast winds over much of the Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak near 11 ft in the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough remains in the eastern half of the Dominican Republic. Precipitation: scattered moderate spans Hispaniola in particular. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate, are in the Caribbean Sea, to the east of the line that runs from 14N83W at the coast of Nicaragua beyond the Windward Passage. Heavy rains and flooding have been occurring in Hispaniola during the last 8 days to 10 days. It is possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase the chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly terrain and in low-lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from your local weather service offices, for more details about this event.

Slight seas are within 60 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras from 14N to 16N: from 20N northward between 80W and 82W: and within 120 nm of the Gulf of Honduras from 86W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Windward Passage: and within 120 nm of the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/0000 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Strong ridge off New England will force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through early next week. Seas will peak near 8 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N60W 25N66W, through the eastern half of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 45W and 76W. Moderate seas are between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from the surface trough northward between 60W and 70W. Moderate and slower winds are from 20N to the surface trough between 58W and the surface trough.

A cold front is passing through 31N70W, to 29N78W. The cold front is dissipating, from 29N78W, northwestward to 30N83W in Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from the cold front northward. Strong NE to E winds are from 30N to 33N between 76W and 80W. Fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Moderate seas are from 30N northward from 70W westward. Slight seas are from 30N southward from 70W westward.

A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 18N41W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 13N to 22N between 35W and 45W. Other similar clouds and precipitation are from 10N to 20N between 45W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 23N northward between 33W and 44W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 23N northward from 33W eastward. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet, just less than rough seas, from 16N to 30N between 33W and 51W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N27W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 20N to 30N between 28W and 40W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A cold front currently south of 30N and W of 70W will merge with a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to the eastern Dominican Republic tonight. The front will reach from near 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of 12 ft over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will prevail in the wake of the weakening front and continue through Mon. Tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh northeast to east winds over the southern waters.



Updated : 27/04/2024 08:00:04

2024 Storm Names

Storm Storm Name Storm Status
1
Alberto Allocated
2
Beryl Allocated
3
Chris Allocated
4
Debby Allocated
5
Ernesto Allocated
6
Francine Allocated
7
Gordon Allocated
8
Helene Allocated
9
Isaac Allocated
10
Joyce Allocated
11
Kirk Allocated
12
Leslie Allocated
13
Milton Allocated
14
Nadine Allocated
15
Oscar Allocated
16
Patty Allocated
17
Rafael Allocated
18
Sara Allocated
19
Tony Allocated
20
Valerie Allocated
21
William Allocated
22
Alpha Allocated
23
Beta Allocated
24
Gamma Allocated
25
Delta Allocated
26
Epsilon Allocated
27
Zeta Allocated


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