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Latest NHC Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, but does extend offshore of Guinea-Bissau to 10N17.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N17.5W to 02.5N30W and to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed south of 06.5N between 03W and 23W, and south of 05N between 23W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic, northeast of Bermuda, extends a ridge southwestward into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are occurring along the northern coast of the Yucatan, while moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds are found across all but the NE portions of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail in the Straits of Florida. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the basin, highest west central portions, except 2 to 3 across the NE part.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central Mexico into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in mainly fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly Tue through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf and is expected to continue through morning. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night, shift southeast, then slow down and weaken further as it reaches from Tampa to Tampico by late Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, and continues to enhance the development of showers and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and surrounding Atlantic waters S of 23N. The trough will gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local weather advisories for more information.

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic northeast of Bermuda is supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds in the central and eastern portions of the basin, becoming moderate to locally fresh SE winds across NW portions, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-4 ft except 4 to 6 ft across south central portions. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through mid week. The high pressure will shift eastward later in the week, shifting the focus of fresh winds more to the southeast Caribbean. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to strong E winds mainly at night across the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed night, between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered northeast of Bermuda near 36N63W, and dominates the SW North Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of the ridge, between 24N and a shear line extending east to west along 19N, and W of 60W. Seas in this zone are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate isolated strong afternoon convection occurring across the Greater Antilles extends northeastward across the adjacent waters to 23N, between 60W and 72W, while weak to moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the shearline along 19N.

Farther east, a cold front extends from the eastern semicircle of a large low pressure system across the north-central Atlantic, through 31N31W to 19.5N50W, where it transitions to the shearline described above. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are evident within 180 nm ahead of the front north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Behind the front to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh NW to W winds and seas of 5-8 ft in northerly swell prevail, increasing to 9 ft along 31N.

The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure centered near Madeira. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to locally strong northerly winds north of 21N and east of 20W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore southern Morocco. Seas are 5-8 ft in these waters. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure northeast of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E winds south of 23N through tonight. Winds will then diminish as the ridge shifts southward to 28N through mid week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with low pressure well NE of the region over the north-central Atlantic will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 60W into Tue night. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida starting Wed night as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of a cold front moving off the Carolinas.



Updated : 07/05/2024 05:00:02

2024 Storm Names

Storm Storm Name Storm Status
1
Alberto Allocated
2
Beryl Allocated
3
Chris Allocated
4
Debby Allocated
5
Ernesto Allocated
6
Francine Allocated
7
Gordon Allocated
8
Helene Allocated
9
Isaac Allocated
10
Joyce Allocated
11
Kirk Allocated
12
Leslie Allocated
13
Milton Allocated
14
Nadine Allocated
15
Oscar Allocated
16
Patty Allocated
17
Rafael Allocated
18
Sara Allocated
19
Tony Allocated
20
Valerie Allocated
21
William Allocated
22
Alpha Allocated
23
Beta Allocated
24
Gamma Allocated
25
Delta Allocated
26
Epsilon Allocated
27
Zeta Allocated


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